BALOCHISTAN – A NATION WAITING TO BE BORN?

PART 3 : RECENT DEVELOPMENTS DRIVING BALOCH INDEPENDENCE

19. Having understood the contextual background, genesis and composition of the Baloch Independence Movement, we are now in a position to determine the reasons for its recent acceleration and the urgency which now propels it towards attainment of its stated goal of independence. It is the aggregate impact of about a dozen significant shifts, all ensconced together in time, reinforcing each other, which renew the surge for Baloch independence and hasten its fruition. The main ones are discussed below.    

More Assertive Political Leadership

20. On 9 May 2025 what set the internet on fire was a tweet on social media platform ‘X’ from Mir Yar Baloch, a known writer and advocate for Baloch rights. Here is what he posted, “A possible announcement soon should be done as the collapse of the terrorist Pakistan is near. We have claimed our independence and we request India to allow Balochistan’s official office, and embassy in Delhi. We also ask the United Nations to recognise the independence of the Democratic Republic of Balochistan and call a meeting of all UN members to lend your support for recognition. There must be a release of billions of funds for currency, and passport printing. We also urge the UN to immediately send it’s peace keeping missions in Balochistan and ask Pakistan’s occupational army to vacate the territories, air space and sea of Balochistan and leave all the weapons, and property in Balochistan. All non-Baloch personnel in the army, frontier corps, police, military intelligence, ISI and civil administration must leave Balochistan immediately. The control of Balochistan will soon be handed over to the new government of independent Balochistan state and a transitional conclusive interim government will soon be announced. Representation of Baloch women in the cabinet is the fulfilment of commitment to our nation. The state ceremony of the independence government of Balochistan will take place soon. We invite the head of the states of our friendly countries to witness the national parade and bless us. #FreeUnitedBalochistan. 5:11 AM · May 9, 2025”.

21. This media post, where hashtags like ‘Republic of Balochistan’ trended alongside photos of the proposed national flag and map, spread throughout the world with lightning speed, spiking global awareness and sympathy for the Baloch cause, and reinvigorating the flame of Baloch independence world-wide. The timing of this post was impeccable. It came at a time when the fury of India’s Operation Sindoor was at its peak, Pakistan’s terror nexus lay spreadeagled and bare before the whole world, the Pakistani military was suffering huge reverses in Balochistan and the IMF was to decide on a 1 billion loan tranche to debt ridden and economically beggared Pakistan, part of a $7 billion programme of which it has already received 2.1 billion previously. That this was synchronised precisely with the energisation of Baloch activists in major capitals around the world showcases the ability and reach of the Baloch political leadership. Besides exhibiting the power of modern digital media, this clarion call for independence unleashed a powerful new wave of Baloch separation from Pakistan. Mir Yar Baloch followed it up by openly voicing support for India, saying, “You are not alone, Narendra Modi. You have the backing of 60 million Baloch patriots.”

22. Here is what Christopher Paller Gerale, an international relations expert on ASEAN and China affairs, wrote in the ’Medium’ on 15 May 2025, “But the story is no longer confined to Balochistan’s borders. In today’s digital era, the Baloch diaspora has taken their message global, staging protests in cities like London, Washington, and Toronto. Social media platforms amplify their cause, with hashtags like #FreeBalochistan trending and drawing attention from activists, analysts, and policymakers worldwide. This digital wave has helped break through the narrative barriers, exposing a broader audience to the complexities of the Baloch struggle. But why is the movement gaining so much traction now? Timing is everything, I believe. Pakistan is navigating turbulent political waters, with internal power struggles, economic instability, and declining public confidence in government institutions. The youth population, especially in Balochistan, faces limited opportunities, fuelling impatience and calls for change. The massive infrastructure and energy projects linked to CPEC, while promising development, have also sparked resentment. Many locals feel sidelined in decisions affecting their own land and livelihoods, heightening tensions.”

23. An examination of the Baloch political leadership indicates that they have managed to put together what may be termed a ‘Government in Exile’ and now need only the infrastructure to house it, as their demand for an embassy in Delhi clearly shows. Were India, or any other nation, to say ‘yes’ this government would possibly start functioning in a matter of days, not weeks and months. What is more, this leadership has already drawn up a detailed and well-sequenced ‘Action Plan’ outlining the steps to be taken to steer Balochistan towards a sovereign existence. In this regard, it is an eye-opener to study the series of recent interviews aired on YouTube, Facebook, NewsX and numerous other global platforms, by eminent Baloch leader and Deputy Organiser of the Baloch American Congress, Razzak Baloch, who resides in Washington. Add to this the issuance of a series of formal letters in the period January – May 2025 by top Baloch leaders, the most prominent being Dr. Tara Chand, President, Baloch American Congress and a former Cabinet Minister in the erstwhile Government of Balochistan. His letters to President Donald Trump, copied to, amongst others, Secretary of State Mark Rubio, dated 29 January 25, and to the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres dated 05 March 25 are of the highest import. More recently, on 23 May 2025 Dr Tara Chand wrote to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, humbly requesting “that the Indian state and government, under your leadership, adopt a policy of meaningful political, moral, and diplomatic support for the Baloch national resistance against the occupation of Pakistan”, pointing out that “Baloch people have great expectations from your leadership.”

24. Perhaps there is no better document to crisply explain the stance of the Baloch separatists, hence relevant parts of Dr Tara Chand’s letter to President Trump are excerpted here.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    “ —- In recent months, Pakistani security agencies have unleashed unprecedented brutality to suppress the Baloch political struggle for their national rights, leading to human suffering on a genocidal scale. The state is specifically targeting the elite of Baloch society; many prominent figures, including political activists, intellectuals, journalists, doctors, engineers, and artists, have been forcibly disappeared or eliminated by security forces, their proxy death squads, and auxiliary paramilitary units. Just days ago, several prominent activists from the Baloch Yekjahti Committee, a human rights organization, were illegally arrested, including its leader, Dr. Mahrang Baloch. The Baloch conflict with Pakistan is one of the most protracted conflicts since World War II, resulting in immense devastation for the Baloch people, both in terms of lives and material resources. Pakistan has not only invaded and occupied their land but has also intruded upon Baloch socio-cultural life. Their history has been distorted, their language is on the brink of extinction, and a fundamentalist Islamic social outlook is overshadowing their secular beliefs. The Baloch people desire to live in freedom and dignity, adhering to their socio-cultural traditions. Their national struggle is grounded in specific rights under international law and conventions, as well as the broader right of all nations to self-determination.”

25. Amongst these recent developments, it is also pertinent to factor-in a very robust debate ongoing in the British Parliament on the subject, details of which are available on https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-02-20/debates/CF5FDBA5-9B93-4525-82BF-7511517EDE64/BalochistanHumanRights. Moreover, coordinated press releases by the Free Balochistan Movement (FBM) – which has its offices in Washington, London, Toronto, Austria, Gulf, Sweden, Germany and Netherlands – have served to attain significant prominence in the national media in these countries, raising not only the awareness of their citizens but also eliciting their sympathy to the demand for a free Balochistan. Even in Canada, Zafar Baloch is very active and enjoys access to the new Canadian leadership. To sum up, it can be surmised that a capable and mature political leadership is now readily available to oversee the transition of Balochistan into a free republic. Their contention is that if fair and free elections are held in Balochistan under aegis of the UN, more than 98% of the people will vote for independence.

Favourable Global and Regional Dynamics after US Exit from Afghanistan

26. The US withdrawal concluded on August 30, 2021, when its last military aircraft left Afghanistan. This allowed the Taliban, a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist and predominantly Pashtun movement, to rapidly regain control of the country and the government in Kabul. In addition, the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K), was also able to expand its presence to several eastern provinces. It may be recalled that during the US presence in Afghanistan, the Taliban and ISIS-K leadership had relocated to their strongholds in southern and eastern Afghanistan as well as across the border into Pakistan held Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The vacuum left by the USA has had a profound impact in two ways.

27. On the external front, it sparked the interest of Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and India, as they rushed in to build bridges with the Taliban. Although none of them, except Pakistan, formally recognises the Taliban, yet each wants to partner it to serve their own interests. India reopened its Kabul embassy and became a significant development partner, investing more than $3 Billion in Afghani infrastructure, health, education and water projects. China has been looking for business opportunities and exploring its options for investment, mainly in the country’s mining sector. It also seeks to expand its CPEC into Afghanistan and gain better control over its Muslim majority Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Iran’s main issues with Afghanistan relate to about 780,000 Afghan refugees in Iran, as well as the trans-boundary water flowing from Helmand River. However, this Taliban regime is proving somewhat different than the earlier one, exhibiting a willingness to engage diplomatically with the UN and all regional players (it has about 39 Afghan embassies and consulates globally), yet maintaining an independent, stand-offish stance.

28. The second major impact of US exit and rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan is that Afghanistan – Pakistan relations are at an all-time low while Afghan support to the Baloch and Pashtun Freedom Movements is correspondingly high. So much so, that border skirmishes have repeatedly taken place between the two and there have been three rounds of air strikes by Pakistan on the territory of Afghanistan between 2022 and 2024. As recently as January – March 2025, sporadic skirmishes were continuing; with attack helicopters, artillery, rockets, mortars, RPGs, tanks and Humvees being used, reports of bunkers being seized and mounting casualties on both sides. While Pakistan’s Frontier Corps and Afghanistan’s Taliban Border Guards have been exchanging fire, the principal actors in these violent incidents remain the Baloch and Pashtun insurgent groups. On the whole, the US withdrawal has emboldened the independence movements in Balochistan and KP, giving them renewed hope and adding fresh fuel to the fire.      

Collusion of Sindh and Baloch Separatists With the Balochis 

29. The Balochistan Independence Movement has also received a perceptible boost from another separatist movement in Pakistan which advocates for a separate Sindhudesh (a proposed independent nation for the Sindhis). As of 16 May 2025, the Jeay Sindh Freedom Movement (JSFM), under the leadership of its founder Zafar Sahito, issued a powerful statement of solidarity with India for its “successful and resolute action” against Islamist terrorist infrastructure operating within Pakistan. Sahito stated, “Sindh is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, generating about 75 per cent to 80 per cent of the country’s revenue. Therefore, it must be liberated. The concept of Punjab as the land of five rivers and Pakistan as ‘Sapta Sindhu’ is deeply rooted in our civilisation. For us, Sindhu is our heritage, shared with Bharat and Sanatan Dharma. This heritage must be reclaimed from the terror state.” Further, the movement has appealed to the IMF, World Bank, and other financial institutions to “Immediately suspend all aid, loans, and assistance to Pakistan. These funds are systematically diverted to finance terrorism, suppress internal dissent, and destabilise neighbouring countries.” Lastly, it has expressed solidarity with other such freedom movements in Pakistan, appealing to democratic nations worldwide to “Recognise the right to self-determination for the oppressed nations under Pakistani occupation—Sindhis, Baloch, Pashtuns, and Saraikis—who seek freedom, peace, and the restoration of their historic sovereignty.”

30. On Pakistan’s restive western borders we now have a situation where, in addition to bolstered support from the Taliban externally and the Sindh separatists internally, the Balochistan Independence Movement is being reinforced and strengthened by yet another, similar, separatist movement currently on the upsurge in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, led by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).  Increased belligerence of the TTP is causing nationwide unrest, upheaval, splintering of Pakistan polity and compounding Pakistan’s security woes. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) recorded a total of 1,363 fatalities in 487 incidents of killing in 2024, registering an increase of 44.84 per cent compared to 2023. Almost all these incidents are related to the TTP. Total terrorism-linked incidents jumped sharply from 472 in 2023 to 702 in 2024. Of 38 Districts in KP, 28 recorded terrorism-related violence in 2024, as against 22 Districts in 2023, according to the SATP database. Clearly, the Pakistani grip over KP is slipping and the TTP feels emboldened to intensify its struggle for a free Pashtun nation. And it is extending full support to a free Balochistan on its south.

Fractures and Fissures Within the Pakistan Military

31. In its 20 Sep 2023 commentary titled ‘The Paradox of the Pakistan Army’ the RUSI journal, the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank, had this to say, “There is a lot that is wrong about the Pakistan army. It interferes in politics too much. It makes bad foreign policy choices. It blocks peace feelers with India. It accounts for too much of GDP. It is too deeply entrenched in the economy. Its human rights record is mixed. — Meanwhile, there are significant changes happening in the army which could have major consequences. —- the army is changing in ways that make the future hard to predict. The Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi elites no longer send their sons to the army. Instead, they despatch them to university in the US and UK (almost never China) and into the professions or business. This has broken the link between the civilian elite and the army. Instead, army officers are now from lower middle class and even more humble backgrounds. They are not Islamist (which was a Western fear in the 1990s and 2000s), but they are less in sympathy with the tiny ruling class in Pakistan and its Westernised habits including democracy. They are trained to be hostile to India, but they are also wary of being sucked too deeply into China’s orbit. — The other change in the Pakistan army is that it too is becoming less democratic. As late as 2001, President Musharraf experienced significant opposition from his Corps Commanders but nowadays the COAS is becoming less ‘first among equals’ and more dictatorial. This could be unfortunate because Pakistan needs good decisions after decades of poor governance. The army is more unpopular inside Pakistan than at any time since 1947—.”

32. Of late, there have been a number of media reports about large scale defections and resignations from the Pakistani Army, especially by Baloch, FATA and KPK soldiers who feel marginalised. Moreover, in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor’s kinetic exchanges across the LOC and International Boundary, followed up by India’s detailed press briefings and a fact-based diplomatic offensive, the tall claims made by the Pakistani political and miliary leadership now stand exposed as blatant lies, untruths and cover-ups. The Pakistani military has ended up discrediting itself and has lost considerable public support for losing this round of missile and drone exchanges to India’s superior military and technology. Consequently, the feeling has emerged in the Pakistani military’s rank and file feel that they can no longer trust their own seniors. The direct result of this is loss of morale and a deepening distrust within the military. Viewed holistically, all these developments suggest a definite weakening of the Pakistani military, spreading distrust and sagging morale.

33. Yet another factor dampening Pakistani military morale is its gross politicization by the present military Chief, Asim Munir, to serve his own personal interests. Described by Wikipedia as ‘a polarising figure’, he is being openly ridiculed and caricatured on Pakistani media for, willy nilly, promoting himself to the rank of ‘Field Marshal’ and placing his family members in plum positions in various government organisations. On 24 April 2025, following the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official, described Munir as a “terrorist” comparing him to the late Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden. He said, “the only difference between Osama Bin Laden and Asim Munir is that Osama Bin Laden lived in a cave and Asim Munir lives in a palace.” Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has openly said, “I will not leave Asim Munir as long as I am alive. I will expose his unconstitutional and illegal steps.” Such is the persona of the man who leads the Pakistani Army. His personal ambition is so rabid that he has manoeuvred to, first; not retire on the scheduled date of 27 November 2022, second; get himself appointed as the COAS and third; now  get himself promoted to the rank of Field Marshal, laughably for losing, not winning, the short conflict. His continued presence is a cause of deep dissension and splintering within the Pakistani Army, in which he is hugely unpopular and largely disliked. Pakistani humourists and entertainers are having a field day cracking jokes and ridiculing Asim Munir for his undeserved self-promotion, in addition coining names for Pakistani ‘Corps Commanders’ as ‘Crore Commanders’ and ‘Chor Commanders’ on public media, alleging widespread corruption, nepotism and power-grabs by them. This is the current state of affairs inside the Pakistani military.

Disaffection of Pakistani Clergy and Citizenry

34. For the first time, a growing rift has become clearly discernible between Pakistan’s military on one hand and its clergy-citizenry combine on the other. For decades, the military’s devious involvement in politics, including its influence on elections and governance, has created widespread resentment among the population, who see it as wrongly usurping legitimate civilian power to greedily serve its own self-interest rather than the national interest. However, this growing rift – largely muted and subterranean till now – has now become plainly visible, gaining traction with each usurious General coming to power. It has now gained enough strength to become a nationwide disaffection and distrust that echoes through all sections of Pakistani society. Having taken root in the psyche of the ‘awam’, it feeds on the widening divide between the poor, deprived populace and the ruling elite, including their uniformed brethren, who hail mainly from affluent families of Punjab. What irks the public the most is that since its independence in 1947 Pakistan has had 29 prime ministers, with none completing a full five-year term because the military grabbed power from each, thus directly ruling Pakistan for over three decades, notwithstanding its claims to being a democracy.

35. As a result, the there is a discernible upheaval in Pakistani society today between the haves and the have-nots. This is finding expression in numerous ways, including retraction of support to the Pakistani military by the general public, fuelled by the voice of religious leaders who are the main perception shapers of traditional Pakistani society, influencing public opinion and shaping political discourse. In a telling video shared on social media in May 2025, Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi, is seen addressing students and followers at Pakistan’s famous Lal Masjid in its capital, Islamabad. He is seen publicly criticising the Pakistani Army, deploring its brutalities in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and instigating the public not to support the military in its war with India. As for public sentiment, when he asks the large gathering ‘who will support the military in a war with India’ not one person raises his hand. Incidents like this reveal the plight of the ordinary man in Pakistan, weighed down by the accumulated deadweight of distrust – even hatred – for the military, disaffection with the elitist ruling family clans, hopelessness in the face of rampant poverty and rising prices, unabated anxiety about personal and family safety in the midst of a broken down law and order situation, demoralisation with unbridled corruption and widespread despondency in the face ‘no ray of hope’ for the future.       

36. The statistics themselves validate his pessimism: Pakistan ranks 164 out of 193 countries in the Human Development Index, it stands at No 27 on the US ‘Failed/Fragile States List’, government gross debt is around 75% of GDP at present, foreign reserves are a meagre $14 Billion, 40% of Pakistan’s population now lives below the poverty line, with over 12.5 million individuals falling into poverty each year and sub-national poverty rates range from 3.9% in Islamabad to 71.5% in the Khuzdar district, Balochistan. This also highlights the huge disparity in national income distribution and gives a legitimate grouse to the marginalised Balochis and Pashtuns to separate from Pakistan. To sum up, the economic situation of Pakistan today is that of a nation reduced to being a beggar in the international community, on account of its successive failures on all fronts, making it a prime case for being classified a ‘failed state’ or what Fareed Zakharia calls a ‘basket case’. Just one statistic proves this point with conviction; according to the World Bank, in 2024, Pakistan’s GDP stood at $374 billion, a mere 9% of India’s GDP of $4.2 trillion! It is a moot point as to how longer such an enfeebled, debilitated and deeply divided Pakistan can hold onto its sovereignty in the face of a wave of a determined resurgence from its breakaway provinces of Balochistan, KP and Sindh?